Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.6% in Q1 of 2026 according to the second estimate, below market expectations of 2.0% and revised down from the advance estimate of 2.0%, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This figure is up from 0.5% in Q4. The growth was primarily driven by an acceleration in gross private domestic investment that added 1.19 percentage points. Personal consumption expenditures slowed from the previous quarter but still added 0.95 pp to growth while net exports subtracted 1.25 pp.
ABA’s Office of the Chief Economist believes the second estimate of Q1 GDP shows that the U.S. economy continued to expand in early 2026, and at an increased pace from the previous quarter, with strong nonresidential investment supporting C&I loan demand. On the other hand, slowed personal consumption growth may weigh on consumer loan demand.
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