What happened to mortgage rates this week?
The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved higher this week to 6.22%, the highest level of 2026. The 11 basis point increase reflects escalating geopolitical tensions that continue to drive volatility across financial markets. Rising energy prices and renewed trade uncertainty have lifted inflation expectations, putting upward pressure on longer-term interest rates and, in turn, mortgage rates. This comes despite softer recent economic data, including moderating inflation at 2.4% and weaker February jobs growth, which would typically support lower borrowing costs. Given the murky outlook, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%Â during the recent March meeting.
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What does this mean for the housing market?
Even with the anticipated increase, mortgage rates remain below year-ago levels, offering some improvement in purchasing power compared to last spring. This is particularly meaningful in regions like the South and West, where inventory has rebounded more significantly and buyers are beginning to regain leverage as more options become available. Nationally, active listings are up 7.9% year over year, reinforcing a gradual shift toward more balanced market conditions. February pending home sales rose 1.8% month over month as buyers took advantage of a brief dip below 6%, though still trailing year-ago levels by 0.8%. This early momentum will also be at risk if the recent run-up in rates persists into the heart of spring.
However, the return of market volatility poses a clear risk to the fragile progress seen earlier this year. As rates approached multiyear lows, buyer interest began to show signs of life, but sustained momentum depends on more than just borrowing costs. Elevated uncertainty could once again sideline both buyers and sellers, reflecting the hesitant market conditions seen last year. For the spring season to gain traction, households will need greater confidence in the economic outlook alongside improved affordability.
