Bitcoin’s price sank sharply over the weekend, sliding below $78,000 — its lowest level since April — as profit-taking collided with thinning liquidity and a scarcity of fresh buyers.
Traders told CoinDesk that a rally once backed by corporate demand, particularly from Strategy’s (MSTR) bitcoin purchases, has run out of steam, leaving markets vulnerable to forced selling and derivative liquidations.
For some market analysts, Saturday’s slide fits into a broader bearish pattern that has been emerging for months. Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has argued since late October that bitcoin is in a sideways-to-downside phase, and that the optimism around a return to new highs — or a rotation from metals back into crypto — is misplaced “hopium” for bulls.
“It’s been my view since [the] end of October that BTC is in a sideways and downside phase… I do not think 80K is a macro low for bitcoin,” Crown, who now posts updates on the crypto market with more than 200,000 subscribers, told CoinDesk, underlining that recent price action may be part of a larger corrective regime.
And the action in the options market backs up this bearish sentiment. Options traders are now increasingly betting that prices will fall below $75,000 and ditching their bullish bets of reaching $100,000. So much so that the dollar value of the number of active bitcoin put options contracts at the $75,000 level listed on Deribit platform now stands at $1.159 billion, almost matching the so-called notional open interest of $1.168 billion locked in the $100,000 call option.
Bearish signals
Crown points to several technical indicators that have historically foreshadowed deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD — a technical trading indicator — crossed down in November, a rare signal that has preceded extended downturns in previous cycles.
Additionally, the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA (another technical indicator) recently crossed into bearish territory. When this happens, it is typically followed by multi-month losses. And the 2025 yearly chart closed as a “shooting star,” a candlestick pattern that often signals a medium-term reversal.
Bitcoin to $50,000?
Making matters worse for bulls, bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October, declining while equities and other risk assets held up — a pattern Crown sees as typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior.
“People generally sell the more speculative assets first,” he said.
Beyond technicals, Crown highlights the speculative wash-out from October’s crash, which eliminated many leveraged altcoin positions and left traders wary of re-entering at elevated levels.
While not as extreme as some cyclical bears, Crown suggests bitcoin may fall to even lower levels — potentially into the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 zone — before stabilizing.
In fact, he says that range represents an area he’s personally eyeing to add to his long-term positions, framing the current market as a potential value-accumulation phase rather than the end of crypto’s broader cycle.
